So you bought yourself a stock and it crashed losing 30 percent overnight. What do you do now? Good question, indeed. And it’s a tough one too, so there is really no right general answer. Your trading plan, which you should have prepared before you even started trading, should answer this.
But let’s ask an easier question and one that is related to the problem at hand. Namely, is it possible to tell how risky individual stocks are so that we could avoid situations like that in future. Certainly, not too many people enjoy waking up to a disaster like that.
In other words, we would like to know if there are some measures of risk for the stock market. Yes, there are and one such a measure is called the beta or the beta coefficent.
What this coefficient measures is the stock volatility. It measures it relative to a broader market, which has the beta of one. A stock whose beta is one is about as volatile as the general market. Stocks with their betas lower than one are less volatile and those with betas higher than one are more volatile than the general market. The beta is not constrained from the above, in principle, so there are stocks with betas as high as 3 or 4. And even higher. Many stocks like that are penny stocks, which is one reason why penny stocks should be avoided.
Now, the more volatile a stock is, the more risky it is to your portfolio. On the other hand, if you only swing trade or day trade, you want stocks like that as they move more rapidly and generate faster gains. Or losses, depending on your luck.
To be more precise, the beta measures the correlation with the broader market. For this reason, this coefficient can be even negative for stocks that are negatively correlated with the general market, meaning they rise when the market heads south or vice versa. This, for instance, is often true of gold stocks. And since beta is not constrained from the below either, some highly volatile gold stocks can have pretty negative betas.
If you want your portfolio to be immune to excessive volatility, you should look for stocks with betas of one or lower. There are plenty of those out there too. The stocks of companies that produce staples tend to have lower betas. For instance, Procter&Gamble can serve as a classic example. They make soap. And last time I checked, there was really nothing exciting about soap, which is why the stock of a company like that is unlikely to generate much volatility. Another example is provided by utility stocks. Just like soap, energy is needed by everyone and all the time, meaning the stocks of companies that deliver those have little tendency to be cyclical and hence less tendency to fluctuate wildly.
Now, how do we find betas? That’s another good question. One way to do this is to use a stock screener, such as the one you can find at Yahoo! Finance or similar larger finance related sites.
Remember, though, that there are really no risk free stocks. Just some are less risky than others.
By: Waldemar Puszkarz
June 16th, 2010 | Posted in Article | Comments Off
With a few bucks to spare and hopes of making more, you decide to try online stock trading. So where do you begin? If you were about to start tennis or golf lessons, you would start at the pro shop to get the right equipment. That’s the same approach needed to begin online trading.
Ok, you have a computer what else? Just any computer and dial up internet connection won’t do for online trading. Toss out the dinosaur hardware that is more than three years old and buy a computer with top speed. The old 256 megabyte models make great paperweights. Anything less than 1 gigabyte is not even in the game. For frequent travelers or commuters, consider spending more for a laptop computer to get portability that is necessary to stay on top of day trading. Online trading demands quick access and a reliable computer. Think of your computer as your business part for online trading.
RAM is the all important amount of memory that is available for programs in use. You need to set any software programs not essential for trading so that they will not run automatically when the computer turns on. Serious online traders use more than one trading site plus research so they need both RAM and speed.
Whether using a desktop computer or laptop computer, buy a flat screen monitor with the highest resolution you can afford. Online trading for day traders requires staring at a computer screen for hours which is rough on the eyes. The larger monitor is more comfortable to view and only needs a hookup to work with your laptop.
Traders who want to have instant access for online trading need a broadband wireless access card for their laptop computers. Another option is to purchase a wireless card from a major provider like Verizon or T-Mobile for a monthly fee or in increments of minutes. These cards are only useful at specific locations so know before you go whether your wireless card will work when you need it.
Set up your computer with files that are easy to access. Think of electronic files the same as manila files in the desk drawer. The more specific the file name, the faster you can find the file. This is very important when searching for the trend report or chart that you need this minute to make a buy or sell decision.
Subscribe to three to five online stock market newsletters. Start with free online news sources until you decide which is more useful. Keep what is helpful and delete the rest. Give yourself limited time for scanning newsletter or you’ll waste valuable online trading time reading.
That’s the basics necessary for online trading. You have a better chance of winning the online trading game when you start with the right equipment for the challenge.
By: Mark Crisp
June 16th, 2010 | Posted in Article | Comments Off
We all know that emotions control every decision that an investor makes in any type of money related vehicle. Whether is be the stock market, real estate, art work or antiques, emotions ultimately set the final price on both sides of the transaction. Some investors have greater control over their emotions while other investors are destroyed by their emotional reactions to certain events.
One common occurrence that I have seen many investors make, including myself, is placing a position in a stock at the wrong time. My last article detailed the importance of timing, while this article will concentrate on the importance of staying focused and emotionally stable when things don’t work out as expected. In the past, I would study a stock’s chart, the fundamentals, the general market health and everything else that I felt necessary before placing a large sum of cash behind my beliefs. When things went wrong and I was forced to sell for a small loss, I would drop the stock from my watch lists and remove it from my memory. This was one of the biggest mistakes that I was making during my earlier years of investing. The greatest investors study their mistakes and learn why they were wrong. If you don’t learn from your mistakes, you will continue to repeat them and never move to the next level.
I was usually correct with my analysis on the particular stock but many times I was too early with my entry point during a new up-trend. Months later, I would come across the same stock in my screens but it was now up 25%, 50% or more from my initial buy point and stop loss. I would be frustrated for selling my stock too soon and was getting tired of using rules and missing big winners that I sold for a loss. I knew money could be made in Wall Street by using the law of averages to my advantage and employing strong money management skills but I needed to employ the rules more consistently. I started to practice what I was taught by selling my losers quickly and allowing my stronger stocks to ride their trends. Over time, I was experiencing a few more losers than winners but my stake was growing because these losers were smaller in size than the winners. The words written in the books were true; Jesse Livermore, Gerald Loeb and William O’Neil were all accurate with their lessons about cutting losses quickly.
More importantly, I learned to keep strong stocks on my radar even if I bought too soon and was forced to sell for a loss. My timing was wrong and my ego was shot because I was wrong, so I typically decided to stay away from that specific stock because it had already taken my cash and my pride. Emotionally, I was burned by the stock even though this was not entirely true. Investing is a game of trial and error. It is okay to buy a stock at the wrong time and sell, only to buy it again because they timing may be better. If you cut the losses small and allow winners to grow, the averages will ALWAYS work out, I promise. You must be honest with yourself to allow the averages to work out. You cannot allow a stock to drop past your sell point and you must try to always hold the strongest stocks without selling them during a premature pullback. This all sounds so easy but it is not! If it was so easy, we would all be extremely rich and the stock market would be everyone’s full time job.
I kept using my system of trial and error and started to record every thought and transaction I made. With my revised philosophy in place; I continued to study the stocks that I was forced to sell and tried my best to re-purchase, even at higher prices than my original position if the time was right. Even now I have these issues, the greatest traders of all time always had these issues and every fund manager must decide if the time is right. My latest example, which can relate to almost everyone in the community is Paincare Holdings, a stock that was purchased solely as a “test buy” that I was forced to sell. If things turn around and the general market starts to rally, I would have no problem buying the stock at a higher price than my original position if the opportunity presents itself.
LaBarge is another example, first showing up on the screens at $9.35 but during a down-trending market. The new pivot point and buy area was $14, over 50% higher than the original price but a solid entry point regardless of past gains or prices. Mentally it is always the toughest to buy a stock at a higher price than you were watching it at an earlier date but it can be the most rewarding strategy. Never look at a chart and toss away a candidate because it has moved up 50% or even doubled in recent months, the real move may just be beginning.
The moral of this article is to make you understand that timing may be your only issue when buying stocks so never throw away a possible superstar because you bought too soon. Keep it on your watch list and be prepared to initiate another position, even if it will cost you an extra point or two. If you buy again and it doesn’t work out, re-peat the process, there is always a chance that the stock was not meant to be or your analysis was slightly faulty. In either case, learn what you are doing right and wrong so you can be prepared to use those lessons with the next stock.
By: Chris Perruna
June 16th, 2010 | Posted in Article | Comments Off